Two estates sit close together on North Mapleton Drive, and both first came to market at $48 million. The first, 111 North Mapleton, is an original Paul Williams-designed house of more than 13,000 square feet on over an acre. It closed this April at $22.3 million. The second, 145 North Mapleton, is a 15,320-square-foot brutalist compound built in 2019. Its price has been cut, and by early November it had been pulled from the market for the second time, with no current asking price disclosed.
The opening asks were the same. What differed was each seller's purchase price, and in Holmby Hills this year that number has done more to predict the outcome than anything on the listing sheet.
The Number Underneath the Asking Price
The history of 111 North Mapleton is public, and it reads like a lesson in anchoring. A trust tied to the seller paid $21.5 million for the house in 2011. It debuted at $48 million in 2021, came down through a series of reductions, and went into contract in late March 2026 at a $25.5 million ask, or $1,933 per square foot. The Real Deal reported that it closed on April 22 at $22.3 million, which works out to $1,687 per square foot.
That makes the closing price about $800,000 above the 2011 purchase, fifteen years later. Holmby Hills is inside the City of Los Angeles, so the sale also carried the city's transfer tax. The Los Angeles Office of Finance lists a combined rate of 5.95% for conveyances at the top tier, made up of the 0.45% base tax and the 5.5% Measure ULA tax. At $22.3 million, 5.95% comes to roughly $1.33 million. That tax alone is larger than the nominal gain, and it comes before commissions.
The house still sold. The seller accepted a price close to what the trust had paid in 2011, and a buyer accepted it. The $48 million ask from 2021 had no bearing on where the deal landed.
| 111 N. Mapleton Drive | 145 N. Mapleton Drive | |
|---|---|---|
| Last purchase | $21.5M in 2011 | $36.5M in 2020 |
| Opening ask | $48M in 2021 | $48M in December 2025 |
| Price after cuts | Closed at $22.3M, April 22, 2026 | Ask reported cut to $38.5M in July 2026 |
| Price per square foot | $1,687 at close | $2,378 at purchase; about $2,513 at the $38.5M ask |
| Status as of November 2026 | Sold | Off market a second time |
Why the House Next Door Keeps Coming Off the Market
The same arithmetic explains 145 North Mapleton. The owner paid $36.5 million in 2020. The listing opened in December 2025 at $48 million, or $3,127 per square foot. By July, The Real Deal reported a $9.5 million cut to $38.5 million and noted that a sale at or near that figure would still be above the 2020 purchase price.
That is true on the headline number. After the transfer tax, it is a much closer call. A $38.5 million sale at the 5.95% combined rate carries about $2.29 million in city transfer tax, which leaves roughly $36.2 million before any other selling costs. That is already below what the owner paid. Each further cut moves the net proceeds further below the 2020 basis, by the amount of the cut plus 5.95% of it.
The neighbor's closing price shows what the gap looks like. 111 North Mapleton traded at $1,687 per square foot, and the $38.5 million ask at 145 North Mapleton works out to about $2,513. The newer house can justify a premium for its age, its security design and its amenity program, which includes a dedicated gym building, a pickleball court and two guest apartments. Even at that reduced ask, a buyer would be paying nearly 50% more per square foot than the neighbor's closing price, and the seller would still net less than the 2020 purchase price after tax. An owner who doesn't have to sell can take a listing down at no cost and keep the house.
The Same Pattern Across the Westside This Fall
The two Mapleton houses fit a wider pattern. The Eklund Gomes weekly luxury contract reports, as covered by The Real Deal from August through October 2026, show high-end homes reaching contract only after their asks came down well below where they started. When the reports also give the seller's purchase price, the ask at contract sits at or just above it.
- 9265 Robin Drive, Bird Streets. Went into contract asking nearly $25 million, down from an earlier $32.5 million ask. A trust linked to the seller bought it for $23.6 million in 2020.
- 820 N. Roxbury Drive, Beverly Hills. Went into contract asking $18.5 million, down from an initial $25 million ask. The sellers paid $16.3 million in 2021.
- 1535 Carla Ridge, Beverly Hills. Went into contract with a $16.5 million ask after first listing at $18.5 million and relisting near $20 million. It last traded for $14.9 million in early 2022.
- 1116 Chantilly Road, Bel Air. Went into contract asking nearly $20 million, or $1,081 per square foot, against an initial $35.7 million ask in 2023.
- 1005 and 1031 Bel Air Court. A portfolio that had been offered as a $105 million package went into contract on a $54.4 million auction bid.
Deals are still being made. In each case where the purchase price is known, an opening ask far above that basis came back down close to it before a buyer signed.
Demand this fall is too thin to bridge the gap. In the report covering the week before September 22, L.A. County luxury contracts totaled $153.1 million in asking volume, down 26% from a year earlier. The September 29 report showed volume down 36.1% year over year. The October 7 report counted 13 contracts and $100.7 million, down 60% in volume. The October 20 report counted 17 contracts and $119.5 million, with contract count down 23% and volume down 16% year over year. Last year's comparison weeks were inflated by buyers and renters displaced by the January 2025 fires, which The Real Deal flagged earlier this year as a factor in the year-over-year math. Even with that adjustment, fewer buyers are active, and a seller who needs to beat a purchase price by 6% after tax is waiting on buyers who are already scarce.
Where the City Line Runs
Holmby Hills shares a border with the City of Beverly Hills, and that border matters to sellers. Measure ULA applies to property conveyed within the City of Los Angeles. The city's own community list places Holmby Hills and Bel Air inside it. The Los Angeles Times has described L.A. as the only city affected by the tax, with Beverly Hills among the nearby cities that aren't subject to it.
The early effect was large. Using MLS data, the Los Angeles Times reported in April 2024 that single-family sales of $5 million or more in the City of Los Angeles fell from 366 in the year from April 2022 to March 2023 to 166 in the following twelve months. Beverly Hills single-family sales fell 24%. A 2025 UCLA Lewis Center paper found that the odds of a Los Angeles property selling above the tax threshold fell by as much as 50%.
Take two houses at the same price on either side of the line. A Holmby Hills sale at $10.9 million or more carries the 5.5% ULA tax on top of the base tax, under the thresholds for transactions closing after June 30, 2026. When the tax first took effect in 2023, the Los Angeles Times reported that many sellers pulled homes rather than pay it. Earlier this year, The Real Deal quoted agents saying sellers are pricing the cost in. At the same gross price, the Holmby Hills seller nets less than the one across the line in Beverly Hills.
What the Nov. 3 Ballot Changed for Holmby Hills
Very little. City Proposition TE creates a one-time exemption from the ULA tax for qualifying residential properties damaged or destroyed in the Palisades Fire. It applies to sales by whoever owned the property on the date of the fire, between January 7, 2025 and January 6, 2030. The Los Angeles County Registrar's tally as of November 6 showed it passing with 61.58% of the vote. Those results are unofficial, and certification is scheduled for November 27. The measure doesn't reach a Mapleton Drive sale.
Statewide Proposition 43 would have required a two-thirds vote for future voter-initiated local special taxes. As CalMatters explained, it would not repeal existing taxes. In CalMatters' November 7 update, with 71% of votes counted, it was trailing with 56.4% voting no. For Holmby Hills, the tax in place before the election is still in place.
Reading a Holmby Hills Listing This Winter
The useful number on any listing here is the last recorded sale price.
- Find the last recorded sale price. Property records give it, and it is the price the seller is measuring every offer against.
- Add the city transfer tax at the bracket where your offer lands. The combined rate is 4.45% from $5.4 million up to $10.9 million, and 5.95% at $10.9 million and above, per the Office of Finance.
- Compare that total with the current ask. If the ask is far above it, the price has room to fall, as it did at 111 North Mapleton. If the ask is already near it, there is less room left to negotiate, and an owner who doesn't need to sell can simply take the house off the market.
This is general market information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Confirm how the transfer tax applies to a specific transaction with your attorney or tax advisor.
FAQ
Is Holmby Hills subject to Measure ULA? Yes. Holmby Hills is within the City of Los Angeles, where the tax applies to conveyances above the current thresholds.
Did the November election exempt any Holmby Hills sales? Proposition TE covers qualifying Palisades Fire-affected properties sold by owners as of the fire date, and its results are unofficial until certification on November 27.
Why do sellers price around the ULA tax? The Los Angeles Times framed the tax as a cost sellers face when they sell, and agents quoted by The Real Deal in 2026 said sellers are pricing it in. How it applies to a specific sale is a question for your attorney or tax advisor.
How a Holmby Hills estate should be priced against what its owner paid, and when holding the house is the better choice, is a decision Aaron weighs with every seller on these streets. If you own on Mapleton, Carolwood or Charing Cross and want that math done privately before you list, Aaron Kirman is ready to talk it through. Let's Connect.
